A statistical engine for the European leagues. Goals, xG, corners, cards, shots, offsides — every market with a calibrated probability and an explicit edge over the book.
The model
Outcomes
Joint scoreline distribution with low-score correction. Win / draw / loss probabilities calibrated against thousands of matches.
Sharpening
Outcome probabilities are temperature-scaled so the model is neither over- nor under-confident — directly improves edge detection.
Form
Recent form weighted 50/50 against the season baseline, with smooth fall-off when sample size is thin.
Strength
Goals expectation softly damped by opponent's defensive (or offensive) strength relative to league average.
Lineups
Player attacking and defensive scores feed into a multiplier on top of the base lambda. Bench depth modelled separately.
Calibration
Backtested against historical settled markets. The displayed probability is what actually hit, not just what theory says.
Markets
Some markets gated by data availability per league.
How it works
€25/month, cancel anytime via Stripe portal.
Every fixture across the top 5 leagues with full team scouting context.
Per-market probability, temperature-corrected, with explicit value vs the line.
Pricing
FAQ
Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1. More leagues added as data becomes available.
A tool. We give you calibrated probabilities and the explicit edge over a stated line — you decide what to bet, if anything.
Calibrated empirically against historical settled markets. Performance varies by league and market; we surface sample size and calibration confidence on every prediction.
Yes. One click in the Stripe customer portal — no contract, no commitment, no refund hassles.
No. Anyone who guarantees you profit on betting is selling a fantasy. We give you a sharper edge than the recreational punter — long-term outcomes are still subject to variance.